Jargonautica
Maths and Statistics

Base Rate Fallacy

Ignoring how common something is when judging a test result. If one person in ten thousand has a condition and your test is 99 per cent accurate, most positive results will still be wrong, because there are so many more healthy people to generate false alarms. This arithmetic governs every screening and detection system.

Technical view

Neglect of the prior in Bayesian updating. For a rare positive class, precision is dominated by the false positive rate multiplied by the size of the negative class, regardless of how good sensitivity is. This is why accuracy is a useless measure under class imbalance, why alert fatigue is structural rather than a failure of attention, and why deployment thresholds must be set against the real prevalence rather than a balanced test set.


Part of AI Terminology Index, section: Maths and Statistics.

How it connects

Base Rate Fallacy links to 7 other terms. The faint lines are links between those terms. See it in the full graph.

Accuracy, Precision and RecallAccuracy, Precision…Anomaly DetectionAnomaly DetectionImbalanced Data and ResamplingImbalanced Data and…Bayes' TheoremBayes' TheoremGuardrailsGuardrailsPrior and PosteriorPrior and PosteriorRegression to the MeanRegression to the M…Base Rate Fallacy