Jargonautica
Maths and Statistics

Monte Carlo Methods

Also called: Monte Carlo

Answering a hard question by trying many random possibilities and looking at what happens. If you cannot calculate the odds directly, simulate the situation thousands of times and count. It is the workhorse behind risk modelling, game-playing systems and a great deal of statistics.

Technical view

Estimating expectations by sampling, with error decreasing as the inverse square root of sample count regardless of dimension, which is why it beats grid methods in high dimensions. Variants include importance sampling and Markov chain Monte Carlo for sampling from distributions known only up to a constant. Monte Carlo tree search underpinned the game-playing systems of the 2010s and reappears in reasoning models that search over candidate solutions.


Part of AI Terminology Index, section: Maths and Statistics.

How it connects

Monte Carlo Methods links to 5 other terms. The faint lines are links between those terms. See it in the full graph.

Reasoning Models and Test-Time ComputeReasoning Models an…Curse of DimensionalityCurse of Dimensiona…Probability DistributionProbability Distrib…Self-consistencySelf-consistencyMarkov ChainMarkov ChainMonte Carlo Methods