Jargonautica
Maths and Statistics

Simpson's Paradox

A pattern that appears in every subgroup can reverse when the groups are combined. A treatment that works better for both men and women can appear worse overall, purely because of how many of each received it. It is the sharpest available demonstration that aggregate statistics can be true and completely misleading at once.

Technical view

Arises from a confounding variable associated with both group membership and outcome, and with unequal group sizes. The resolution is not statistical but causal: which analysis is correct depends on the causal structure, specifically whether the grouping variable is a confounder to adjust for or a mediator to leave alone. It is the standard argument for disaggregated evaluation, since aggregate model performance can hide reversed performance for every subgroup.


Part of AI Terminology Index, section: Maths and Statistics.

How it connects

Simpson's Paradox links to 5 other terms. The faint lines are links between those terms. See it in the full graph.

BiasBiasCorrelation and CausationCorrelation and Cau…Causal InferenceCausal InferenceSurvivorship BiasSurvivorship BiasError AnalysisError AnalysisSimpson's Paradox