Jargonautica
Maths and Statistics

Confidence Interval

A range that expresses how precisely you actually know something. An accuracy of 84 per cent measured on fifty examples might really be anywhere between 71 and 92 per cent, which changes what you can honestly claim. Reporting a single number from a small evaluation set is the most common way benchmark results mislead.

Technical view

An interval that would contain the true parameter in a stated proportion of repeated samples. For a proportion, width scales roughly with the inverse square root of sample size, so distinguishing two systems a couple of points apart needs far more examples than people expect. Bootstrapping gives intervals without distributional assumptions and is the practical default for model evaluation.


Part of AI Terminology Index, section: Maths and Statistics.

How it connects

Confidence Interval links to 6 other terms. The faint lines are links between those terms. See it in the full graph.

Sampling and Sampling BiasSampling and Sampli…Central Limit TheoremCentral Limit Theor…Benchmarks and EvalsBenchmarks and EvalsVariance and Standard DeviationVariance and Standa…Cross-validationCross-validationStatistical Significance and the p-valueStatistical Signifi…Confidence Interval