A popular picture of how excitement about a new technology tends to run ahead of reality and then fall back. Expectations shoot up, crash when early promises disappoint, then recover slowly as people learn what the technology is actually good for. It is useful as a warning against buying at the peak or giving up in the trough, though it is a rule of thumb rather than a law.
Technical view
Introduced by Gartner analyst Jackie Fenn in 1995 and published by Gartner each year across many technology areas. Its five phases are the Innovation Trigger, the Peak of Inflated Expectations, the Trough of Disillusionment, the Slope of Enlightenment and the Plateau of Productivity. Critics point out that it is not backed by systematic data, that many technologies never follow the curve, and that where a technology sits on it is an analyst’s judgement. It remains a handy shared vocabulary for adoption timing, procurement caution and investment narratives.
Related
Part of AI Terminology Index, section: Product and Adoption.